# Baseline: Demographics → Sovereign Ratings

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1: Z only | rating_numeric | 2,312 | 81 | 0.382 |
| A2: Z + controls | rating_numeric | 2,087 | 79 | 0.453 |
| A3: Z + controls + debt | rating_numeric | 2,048 | 79 | 0.485 |
| A4: age ratios + controls | rating_numeric | 2,087 | 79 | 0.322 |
| A5: OECD Z + controls + debt | rating_numeric | 954 | 31 | 0.114 |
| A6: non-OECD Z + controls + debt | rating_numeric | 1,094 | 48 | 0.406 |
| A7l: low-income | rating_numeric | 227 | 13 | 0.476 |
| A7m: mid-income | rating_numeric | 606 | 35 | 0.036 |
| A7h: high-income | rating_numeric | 1,254 | 46 | 0.118 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1: Z only | Z_1 | 14.2639 | 5.6867 | 0.0122 | ** |
| A1: Z only | Z_2 | -1.6609 | 0.8078 | 0.0399 | ** |
| A1: Z only | Z_3 | 0.0616 | 0.0323 | 0.0567 | * |
| A2: Z + controls | Z_1 | 14.4783 | 6.1314 | 0.0183 | ** |
| A2: Z + controls | Z_2 | -1.6545 | 0.8796 | 0.0601 | * |
| A2: Z + controls | Z_3 | 0.0603 | 0.0353 | 0.0879 | * |
| A3: Z + controls + debt | Z_1 | 15.9871 | 5.9371 | 0.0071 | *** |
| A3: Z + controls + debt | Z_2 | -1.8956 | 0.8518 | 0.0262 | ** |
| A3: Z + controls + debt | Z_3 | 0.0712 | 0.0342 | 0.0372 | ** |
| A3: Z + controls + debt | govt_debt_gdp | -0.0286 | 0.0034 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A4: age ratios + controls | old_dep | -0.6731 | 4.0719 | 0.8687 |  |
| A4: age ratios + controls | youth_dep | -8.2598 | 2.2434 | 0.0002 | *** |
| A5: OECD Z + controls + debt | Z_1 | 31.7084 | 14.5378 | 0.0294 | ** |
| A5: OECD Z + controls + debt | Z_2 | -3.8632 | 1.9442 | 0.0472 | ** |
| A5: OECD Z + controls + debt | Z_3 | 0.1364 | 0.0734 | 0.0635 | * |
| A5: OECD Z + controls + debt | govt_debt_gdp | -0.0374 | 0.0053 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A6: non-OECD Z + controls + debt | Z_1 | 10.6065 | 7.3616 | 0.1499 |  |
| A6: non-OECD Z + controls + debt | Z_2 | -0.9205 | 1.0895 | 0.3983 |  |
| A6: non-OECD Z + controls + debt | Z_3 | 0.0222 | 0.0448 | 0.6209 |  |
| A6: non-OECD Z + controls + debt | govt_debt_gdp | -0.0268 | 0.0046 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A7l: low-income | Z_1 | 16.7840 | 17.6024 | 0.3414 |  |
| A7l: low-income | Z_2 | -2.2173 | 2.6534 | 0.4043 |  |
| A7l: low-income | Z_3 | 0.0933 | 0.1086 | 0.3910 |  |
| A7m: mid-income | Z_1 | 18.7471 | 15.9896 | 0.2415 |  |
| A7m: mid-income | Z_2 | -2.3580 | 2.3102 | 0.3078 |  |
| A7m: mid-income | Z_3 | 0.0834 | 0.0923 | 0.3665 |  |
| A7h: high-income | Z_1 | 9.3672 | 7.0633 | 0.1850 |  |
| A7h: high-income | Z_2 | -0.9639 | 0.9910 | 0.3309 |  |
| A7h: high-income | Z_3 | 0.0308 | 0.0396 | 0.4370 |  |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen*